Market review from UTEX — week 40

• Major US indices closed the week slightly down: SPY lost 0.28%, Nasdaq dropped 0.56%.
• Intel surged 20% on positive news. The company is seeking investment from Apple and is offering a partnership to TSMC. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Trump administration aims to significantly reduce US dependence on semiconductor imports by promoting domestic production.
• Alibaba continues to rise, +5% for the week and already +40% for the month. Corrections followed strong gains in Astera Labs and Oracle, down 20% and 8% respectively for the week. Freeport-McMoRan fell 20% on expectations of declining copper and gold sales.
• Bitcoin was pulling back to $109,000, but is already back up to $112,000. Ethereum fell 1.3% to $4,100.
• By early Wednesday, Democrats and Republicans must reach a consensus on federal funding. If no decision is made, the government will shut down at 00:01 ET. Trump will meet with Congressional leaders on Monday.
• Tesla will release delivery data for Q3 on Thursday, and on Friday there will be US labor market data. Many Fed members are concerned about rising unemployment.
• Notable reports include Nike, Paychex, Lamb Weston, Carnival, RPM International, Acuity, and Conagra Brands.

Top 5 ideas for trading this week

🟡 Conagra Brands (CAG). Report on October 1 before open. Packaged foods manufacturer. A steady slow downtrend since early 2023. Down another 43% over the past year, stocks are at 2012 levels. If the report surprises, long-term consideration is possible. CAG is low volatility and slow; not recommended for day trading.

🔴 Nike (NKE). Report on September 30 after close. Heavily declined early this year, reversal began in April. In 2021, the stock was nearly $180, now $69 — decent midterm prices. The last two reports had big gaps; possibly will happen this time too.

🟡 Lamb Weston (LW). Report on September 30 before open. Frozen potato products maker. Stocks have traded between $48–$60 for 8 months. The last two reports beat expectations, but resistance at $60 held. Strong support as well. Worth watching if it breaks out of the range.

🔴 AppLovin (APP). No report. Mobile app developer platform. +44% over the month, best performer among companies with over $200 billion market cap. Alibaba Group is second at +40%. The stock doubled over the quarter. Very high volatility with 50-point swings possible within days. For lovers of expensive volatile stocks.

🟡 Progress Software (PRGS). Report on September 29 after close. Developer of business application management software. Stocks fell from $65 to nearly $40 since July. Potential midterm play if it beats estimates and holds above $40, a level not traded below since 2021.

Choose what suits you best:

🔴 high risk, for the pros;

🟡 medium risk, for traders with little experience.

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